Mortgage Market Insights
Rate updates, housing market analysis, and policy changes that affect borrowers.
Fixed-to-ARM Spread Analysis: When 40 Basis Points Changes the Math
The current 0.40% spread between 30-year fixed and 7/6 ARM rates creates a narrow window where adjustable rates make sense. Data-driven analysis of who benefits and when the math breaks down.
Rent vs. Buy in 2026: Where the Math Works Across 5 Metros
At 6.38% and current home prices, owning costs more per month than renting in every major metro. But equity accumulation creates a breakeven at 4 to 16 years depending on the market. The answer is not rent or buy, but how long you plan to stay.
USDA Loans Fell 75% - Why the Zero-Down Program Could Rebound in 2026
USDA loan volume fell 75% from its 2021 peak. The decline is now slowing, and improving inventory and stabilizing rates are making zero-down financing more relevant again.
Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.38% as Spread Widens (Despite Falling Treasury Yields)
The 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.38% for the week ending March 26, 2026, up 16 bps, even as the 10-Year Treasury fell. The mortgage-Treasury spread widened to 205 bps, the highest level this cycle.
Spring 2026 Housing Market: Inventory Rebuilds as Rates Stall
Spring 2026 housing conditions are defined by rising inventory, resilient prices, and mortgage rates stuck above 6%. Months supply has more than doubled year over year while home sales are projected to climb modestly.
Why Mortgage Rates Don't Fall When the Fed Cuts Rates
The Fed has cut 175 bps since September 2024, but the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has barely moved. The disconnect comes from two different benchmarks, and an elevated mortgage-Treasury spread that adds cost beyond what yields alone dictate.
How Much Income You Need to Buy a Home in 2026
A household needs $107,002 in annual income to afford the national median-priced home at current mortgage rates, roughly $32,000 more than the U.S. median household income. This analysis ranks 20 major metros by income required and shows how rate changes shift the affordability threshold.
Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.22% as Fed Holds, Projects Single Cut in 2026
The 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.22% for the week ending March 19, 2026, up 24 basis points from the February low. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% and projects just one cut this year. Mortgage-Treasury spread widened to 202 bps.